Passages cited (135)

1. David Hume, An Enquiry Concerning Human Understanding, Vol. 37, p. 332read · scan
2. David Hume, An Enquiry Concerning Human Understanding, Vol. 37, p. 363read · scan
3. David Hume, An Enquiry Concerning Human Understanding, Vol. 37, p. 375–376read · scan
4. Charles Darwin, The Origin of Species, Vol. 11, p. 138read · scan
5. Charles Darwin, The Origin of Species, Vol. 11, p. 257–258read · scan
6. Charles Darwin, The Origin of Species, Vol. 11, p. 164read · scan
7. Thomas Hobbes, Of Man, Being the First Part of Leviathan, Vol. 34, p. 378–379read · scan
8. Ralph Waldo Emerson, Worship, Vol. 5, p. 283read · scan
9. Ralph Waldo Emerson, Worship, Vol. 5, p. 286read · scan
10. Plutarch, Pericles, Vol. 12, p. 38–39read · scan
11. Epictetus, The Golden Sayings of Epictetus, Vol. 2, p. 140–141read · scan
12. Sir Walter Raleigh, Preface to the History of the World, Vol. 39, p. 100read · scan
13. Jean-Jacques Rousseau, Profession of Faith of a Savoyard Vicar, Vol. 34, p. 252read · scan
14. Jean-Jacques Rousseau, Profession of Faith of a Savoyard Vicar, Vol. 34, p. 253read · scan
15. David Hume, An Enquiry Concerning Human Understanding, Vol. 37, p. 395read · scan
16. Marcus Aurelius, The Meditations of Marcus Aurelius, Vol. 2, p. 233read · scan
17. Marcus Aurelius, The Meditations of Marcus Aurelius, Vol. 2, p. 298read · scan
18. Marcus Aurelius, The Meditations of Marcus Aurelius, Vol. 2, p. 269read · scan
19. Marcus Aurelius, The Meditations of Marcus Aurelius, Vol. 2, p. 256read · scan
20. Sophocles, Oedipus the King, Vol. 8, p. 237read · scan
21. John Milton, Paradise Lost, Vol. 4, p. 129read · scan
22. Blaise Pascal, Thoughts, Vol. 48, p. 42read · scan
23. Blaise Pascal, Thoughts, Vol. 48, p. 41–42read · scan
24. Blaise Pascal, Thoughts, Vol. 48, p. 104read · scan
25. Blaise Pascal, Minor Works, Vol. 48, p. 378read · scan
26. John Dryden, All for Love; or, The World Well Lost, Vol. 18, p. 88read · scan
27. Saint Augustine, The Confessions of St. Augustine, Vol. 7, p. 101–102read · scan
28. Dante Alighieri, Paradise, Vol. 20, p. 419read · scan
29. Dante Alighieri, Hell, Vol. 20, p. 28read · scan
30. Sir Thomas Browne, Religio Medici, Vol. 3, p. 268–269read · scan
31. Sir Thomas Browne, Religio Medici, Vol. 3, p. 269read · scan
32. Sir Thomas Browne, Religio Medici, Vol. 3, p. 266–268read · scan
33. Thomas Hobbes, Of Man, Being the First Part of Leviathan, Vol. 34, p. 362–363read · scan
34. Sophocles, Antigone, Vol. 8, p. 292–293read · scan
35. Virgil, The Aeneid, Vol. 13, p. 366read · scan
36. Amerigo Vespucci, Amerigo Vespucci's Account of His First Voyage, Vol. 43, p. 28read · scan
37. Michel de Montaigne, That We Should Not Judge of Our Happiness Until After Our Death, Vol. 32, p. 6–7read · scan
38. William Shakespeare, The Tragedy of Hamlet, Prince of Denmark, Vol. 46, p. 138read · scan
39. William Shakespeare, The Tragedy of King Lear, Vol. 46, p. 278–280read · scan
40. Robert Burns, Poems and Songs, Vol. 6, p. 21–22read · scan
41. Robert Burns, Poems and Songs, Vol. 6, p. 35–37read · scan
42. Dante Gabriel Rossetti, Poems, Vol. 42, p. 1165–1166read · scan
43. Marcus Tullius Cicero, On Friendship, Vol. 9, p. 27–28read · scan
44. Benvenuto Cellini, The Autobiography of Benvenuto Cellini, Vol. 31, p. 391–392read · scan
45. John Dryden, All for Love; or, The World Well Lost, Vol. 18, p. 39–42read · scan
46. Johann Wolfgang von Goethe, Egmont, Vol. 19, p. 304–305read · scan
47. Francis Bacon, Essays, Civil and Moral, Vol. 3, p. 99read · scan
48. Virgil, The Aeneid, Vol. 13, p. 197read · scan
49. Marcus Aurelius, The Meditations of Marcus Aurelius, Vol. 2, p. 231–232read · scan
50. Dante Alighieri, Hell, Vol. 20, p. 61read · scan
51. William Roper, The Life of Sir Thomas More, Vol. 36, p. 114–125read · scan
52. John Milton, Poems Written at Horton, 1632-1638, Vol. 4, p. 57read · scan
53. William Ernest Henley, Poems, Vol. 42, p. 1209–1211read · scan
54. Niccolò Machiavelli, The Prince, Vol. 36, p. 19read · scan
55. Niccolò Machiavelli, The Prince, Vol. 36, p. 20read · scan
56. Niccolò Machiavelli, The Prince, Vol. 36, p. 22read · scan
57. Niccolò Machiavelli, The Prince, Vol. 36, p. 27read · scan
58. Niccolò Machiavelli, The Prince, Vol. 36, p. 50read · scan
59. Niccolò Machiavelli, The Prince, Vol. 36, p. 80read · scan
60. Francis Bacon, Essays, Civil and Moral, Vol. 3, p. 98–99read · scan
61. Francis Bacon, Essays, Civil and Moral, Vol. 3, p. 100–101read · scan
62. Francis Bacon, Essays, Civil and Moral, Vol. 3, p. 56read · scan
63. Ralph Waldo Emerson, Self-Reliance, Vol. 5, p. 82–83read · scan
64. Samuel Johnson, Life of Addison, 1672-1719, Vol. 27, p. 184read · scan
65. Ecclesiastes; or, The Preacher, Vol. 44, p. 347–348read · scan
66. Thomas Hobbes, Of Man, Being the First Part of Leviathan, Vol. 34, p. 403–404read · scan
67. Plutarch, Pericles, Vol. 12, p. 75–76read · scan
68. Sir Walter Raleigh, The Discovery of Guiana, Vol. 33, p. 308read · scan
69. Benjamin Franklin, His Autobiography, Vol. 1, p. 137–138read · scan
70. Jean Froissart, The Chronicles of Froissart, Vol. 35, p. 48read · scan
71. Jean Froissart, The Chronicles of Froissart, Vol. 35, p. 94–95read · scan
72. Jean Froissart, The Chronicles of Froissart, Vol. 35, p. 91–92read · scan
73. Adam Smith, An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations, Vol. 10, p. 403read · scan
74. Ecclesiastes; or, The Preacher, Vol. 44, p. 345–346read · scan
75. Blaise Pascal, Thoughts, Vol. 48, p. 62–63read · scan
76. Blaise Pascal, Thoughts, Vol. 48, p. 65–66read · scan
77. Michel de Montaigne, That to Philosophise Is to Learne How to Die, Vol. 32, p. 12–13read · scan
78. Alessandro Manzoni, I Promessi Sposi (The Betrothed), Vol. 21, p. 640read · scan
79. Jean-Jacques Rousseau, A Discourse upon the Origin and the Foundation of the Inequality among Mankind, Vol. 34, p. 214read · scan
80. Jean-Jacques Rousseau, Profession of Faith of a Savoyard Vicar, Vol. 34, p. 283–284read · scan
81. Thomas Carlyle, Sir Walter Scott, Vol. 25, p. 403–404read · scan
82. Adam Smith, An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations, Vol. 10, p. 90read · scan
83. Adam Smith, An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations, Vol. 10, p. 117–118read · scan
84. Aeschylus, Agamemnon, Vol. 8, p. 30–33read · scan
85. Benjamin Franklin, His Autobiography, Vol. 1, p. 157–159read · scan
86. Richard Henry Dana, Jr., Two Years Before the Mast, Vol. 23, p. 332read · scan
87. Frank Aretas Haskell, The Battle of Gettysburg, Vol. 43, p. 371–374read · scan
88. Plutarch, Caesar, Vol. 12, p. 316–317read · scan
89. Blaise Pascal, Thoughts, Vol. 48, p. 262read · scan
90. Oliver Wendell Holmes, The Contagiousness of Puerperal Fever, Vol. 38, p. 243–244read · scan
91. Saint Augustine, The Confessions of St. Augustine, Vol. 7, p. 46–47read · scan
92. Saint Augustine, The Confessions of St. Augustine, Vol. 7, p. 47–48read · scan
93. Saint Augustine, The Confessions of St. Augustine, Vol. 7, p. 102–103read · scan
94. Saint Augustine, The Confessions of St. Augustine, Vol. 7, p. 103–105read · scan
95. Blaise Pascal, Thoughts, Vol. 48, p. 233–234read · scan
96. Jean-Jacques Rousseau, Profession of Faith of a Savoyard Vicar, Vol. 34, p. 286–287read · scan
97. Jean-Jacques Rousseau, Profession of Faith of a Savoyard Vicar, Vol. 34, p. 291read · scan
98. Sir Thomas Browne, Religio Medici, Vol. 3, p. 282read · scan
99. John Webster, The Duchess of Malfi, Vol. 47, p. 780–781read · scan
100. Stories from the Thousand and One Nights, Vol. 16, p. 118read · scan
101. Stories from the Thousand and One Nights, Vol. 16, p. 189–190read · scan
102. Miguel de Cervantes, The History of Don Quixote of the Mancha, Part I, Vol. 14, p. 68–69read · scan
103. Miguel de Cervantes, The History of Don Quixote of the Mancha, Part I, Vol. 14, p. 187–188read · scan
104. Thomas Dekker, The Shoemaker's Holiday, Vol. 47, p. 511–512read · scan
105. Jacob and Wilhelm Grimm, Household Tales, Vol. 17, p. 170read · scan
106. Henry Wadsworth Longfellow, Poems, Vol. 42, p. 1322read · scan
107. Charles Darwin, The Origin of Species, Vol. 11, p. 94read · scan
108. Charles Darwin, The Origin of Species, Vol. 11, p. 82read · scan
109. Charles Darwin, The Origin of Species, Vol. 11, p. 114–115read · scan
110. Charles Darwin, The Origin of Species, Vol. 11, p. 243–244read · scan
111. Sir Charles Lyell, Prejudices Which Have Retarded the Progress of Geology, Vol. 38, p. 390read · scan
112. Sir Charles Lyell, Uniformity in the Series of Past Changes in the Animate and Inanimate World, Vol. 38, p. 409–410read · scan
113. Sir Thomas More, Utopia, Vol. 36, p. 168–169read · scan
114. Voltaire, Letters on the English, Vol. 34, p. 99–100read · scan
115. William Harrison, A Description of Elizabethan England, Vol. 35, p. 295read · scan
116. Francis Bacon, The New Atlantis, Vol. 3, p. 174–175read · scan
117. Tacitus, Germany, Vol. 33, p. 106read · scan
118. Plutarch, Antony, Vol. 12, p. 345–346read · scan
119. Sir Thomas More, Utopia, Vol. 36, p. 196read · scan
120. Ben Jonson, The Alchemist, Vol. 47, p. 553read · scan
121. Gotthold Ephraim Lessing, Minna von Barnhelm, or The Soldier's Fortune, Vol. 26, p. 348–349read · scan
122. Edmund Burke, Reflections on the Revolution in France, Vol. 24, p. 324read · scan
123. Luke, The Acts of the Apostles, Vol. 44, p. 424–425read · scan
124. Thomas Hobbes, Of Man, Being the First Part of Leviathan, Vol. 34, p. 409–410read · scan
125. Adam Smith, An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations, Vol. 10, p. 109read · scan
126. Adam Smith, An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations, Vol. 10, p. 110–111read · scan
127. Adam Smith, An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations, Vol. 10, p. 111–112read · scan
128. Adam Smith, An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations, Vol. 10, p. 402read · scan
129. Adam Smith, An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations, Vol. 10, p. 461read · scan
130. John Woolman, The Journal of John Woolman, Vol. 1, p. 243–244read · scan
131. Blaise Pascal, Thoughts, Vol. 48, p. 84read · scan
132. Blaise Pascal, Thoughts, Vol. 48, p. 85read · scan
133. Blaise Pascal, Thoughts, Vol. 48, p. 85read · scan
134. Blaise Pascal, Thoughts, Vol. 48, p. 87read · scan
135. Blaise Pascal, Thoughts, Vol. 48, p. 87–88read · scan

Introductory essay written by Claude Opus 5.5 from the outline and the notes on every passage below; quotations are checked against this edition.

1. 1The nature of chance: real or only ignorance
   1. 1aChance as a name for ignorance of causes
   2. 1bThe argument that order cannot arise from chance
   3. 1cChance as the ruler of the world
   4. 1dChance and fortune reduced to providence
2. 2Fortune as a power: blind, fickle and turning her wheel
   1. 2aThe wheel and inconstancy of fortune
   2. 2bFortune blind and unjust to the deserving
   3. 2cFortune as divine minister or as a force defied
3. 3Fortune and human merit, will and opportunity
   1. 3aThe mastery of fortune by merit and will
   2. 3bSeizing opportunity and occasion
   3. 3cGood luck in war and adventure
4. 4Accident and the unforeseen in human affairs
   1. 4aSmall accidents with great consequences
   2. 4bCoincidence and the question of providence
   3. 4cStorms, shipwrecks and mishaps at sea
   4. 4dNarrow escapes and lethal freaks
5. 5Chance in tales, plots and comic chains of accidents
   1. 5aComic chains of accident
   2. 5bHappy and unlucky meetings in fiction
6. 6Chance in nature and science
   1. 6aChance and variation in natural selection
   2. 6bImprobable concurrences in geology and fossil record
   3. 6cChance in discovery and invention
   4. 6dChance and the doctrine of prediction
7. 7Games of chance, lots and lotteries
   1. 7aGaming and dice as vice or folly
   2. 7bLotteries and the overvaluing of hazard
   3. 7cLots as a means of decision
   4. 7dPascal's wager and the doctrine of chance

1.The nature of chance: real or only ignorance

1a.Chance as a name for ignorance of causes

Thomas Hobbes, Of Man, Being the First Part of LeviathanVol. 34

• p. 378–379Men attribute luck to lucky places, persons and words with no causal connection.read · scan

David Hume, An Enquiry Concerning Human UnderstandingVol. 37

• p. 332Though no real chance exists, ignorance of causes acts like it; dice example shows probability from superiority of chances.read · scan
• p. 332–333Concurrence of several views in one event yields belief, as with chance.read · scan
• p. 363Chance strictly examined is a negative word for no real power.read · scan
• p. 363–364Hume equates liberty without necessity with chance, which is universally allowed not to exist; causes have regular conjunction, so chance is denied as a real thing.read · scan
• p. 375–376Probability arises from balancing opposed experiments; June/December weather example shows events may unforeseeably disappoint expectation.read · scan

Ralph Waldo Emerson, WorshipVol. 5

• p. 283Shallow men believe in luck and circumstance; no luck exists in events.read · scan
• p. 286Denies that victory is fortunate; there is no chance and no blanks where work is done.read · scan

Charles Darwin, The Origin of SpeciesVol. 11

• p. 138Darwin calls chance an incorrect expression for variation, admitting ignorance of cause.read · scan
• p. 164Darwin is convinced not even a stripe of colour appears by what is commonly called chance.read · scan
• p. 257–258Variations arise from what Darwin calls, in our ignorance, accident.read · scan

1b.The argument that order cannot arise from chance

Plutarch, PericlesVol. 12

• p. 38–39Anaxagoras rejected fortune or chance as the first ordering of the world.read · scan

Epictetus, The Golden Sayings of EpictetusVol. 2

• p. 140–141Denies that the cosmos is administered by blind chance.read · scan

Sir Walter Raleigh, Preface to the History of the WorldVol. 39

• p. 100Criticizes ascribing the world to motes, necessity or chance instead of a workmanread · scan
• p. 102–103Eternal matter would make God find his material by fortuneread · scan

David Hume, An Enquiry Concerning Human UnderstandingVol. 37

• p. 395The argument asks whether a fortuitous concourse of atoms could produce the ordered universe.read · scan

Jean-Jacques Rousseau, Profession of Faith of a Savoyard VicarVol. 34

• p. 250Fortuitous concourse of elements cannot explain order; universal chaos is more inconceivable than harmony.read · scan
• p. 252Order cannot result from chance: printer's types would not arrange into the Aeneid, so infinite odds oppose fortuitous combination.read · scan
• p. 253Rejects deriving cosmic harmony from a fortuitous jumble of atoms.read · scan

1c.Chance as the ruler of the world

Sophocles, Oedipus the KingVol. 8

• p. 237Jocasta argues chance rules everything, foresight of the future is impossible, and it is best to live at random.read · scan

Plato, CritoVol. 2

• p. 32–33Socrates says what the many do is the result of chance.read · scan

Virgil, The AeneidVol. 13

• p. 152Hyarbas asks whether Jove's thunder is a blind work of chance.read · scan

Plutarch, CaesarVol. 12

• p. 293The city is likened to a ship left to run wherever chance guides her upon any rock.read · scan

Marcus Aurelius, The Meditations of Marcus AureliusVol. 2

• p. 209–210Events attributed to destiny and coincidence or chance.read · scan
• p. 233The alternative is a fortuitous combination of things.read · scan
• p. 256Blame neither atoms nor gods; correct what is in your power.read · scan
• p. 269If chance rules, do not be governed by it.read · scan
• p. 298External events come by chance or providence; blame neither.read · scan

Dante Alighieri, HellVol. 20

• p. 17–20Democritus is said to set the world at chance.read · scan
• p. 131–133Dante does not know whether will, destiny or chance made his foot strike the face.read · scan

René Descartes, Discourse on the Method of Rightly Conducting the Reason and Seeking the Truth in the SciencesVol. 34

• p. 12Irregular old cities look arranged by chance rather than reason.read · scan
• p. 21–22The traveller's initial direction may have been determined by chance alone.read · scan

John Milton, Paradise LostVol. 4

• p. 88–90Beelzebub wonders whether God's supremacy is upheld by strength, chance or fate.read · scan
• p. 108Fate yielding to fickle Chance and Chaos judging the strife.read · scan
• p. 129Chaos sits as umpire and Chance governs all in the warring Abyss; Satan is hurled by ill chance of a cloud.read · scan
• p. 129Chance is personified among the attendants of Chaos's court, alongside Rumour, Tumult, Confusion and Discord.read · scan

Blaise Pascal, ThoughtsVol. 48

• p. 41–42Chance decides the choice of a calling, the most important affair in life.read · scan
• p. 42Chance gives us our condition and country; we deliberate only on means, not ends.read · scan
• p. 49By chance each man chooses his calling by what he has heard praised.read · scan
• p. 104Reckless chance distributed human laws.read · scan
• p. 122–123Chance gives and removes thoughts; art cannot keep them.read · scan

Blaise Pascal, Minor WorksVol. 48

• p. 378The nobleman's wealth and very existence depend on an infinity of chances, like the shipwrecked man mistaken for king.read · scan
• p. 378–379Possession results from a concurrence of chance and the caprice of laws.read · scan

John Dryden, All for Love; or, The World Well LostVol. 18

• p. 88Charmion complains that undeserved suffering for virtue makes men think chance rules above, shuffling lots with a random hand.read · scan

Johann Wolfgang von Goethe, The Tragedy of Faust, Part IVol. 19

• p. 71–73Faust would stem the rolling surge of chance, with success and failure mingling.read · scan

Alexander Hamilton and John Jay, The Federalist, Nos. I and IIVol. 43

• p. 199–200Contrasts government founded on reflection and choice with dependence on accident and force.read · scan

Friedrich von Schiller, Letters upon the Aesthetic Education of ManVol. 32

• p. 278Sensuousness recognizes only interest and blind chance as master of the world.read · scan

1d.Chance and fortune reduced to providence

Saint Augustine, The Confessions of St. AugustineVol. 7

• p. 101–102Nothing unlooked-for or chance can affect God, who knows all things.read · scan

Dante Alighieri, ParadiseVol. 20

• p. 419Chance can find no entrance in heaven, no more than hunger, thirst or sorrow.read · scan

Thomas Hobbes, Of Man, Being the First Part of LeviathanVol. 34

• p. 362–363Good luck is called the secret working of God; good success brings reputation of wisdom or fortune.read · scan

Sir Thomas Browne, Religio MediciVol. 3

• p. 266–268Apparent chance and fortune prove on examination the hand of God, as in the Powder-plot and Armada.read · scan
• p. 268–269Fortune is a name born of human ignorance for Providence; no cause operates loosely without a superior cause.read · scan
• p. 269Fortune is not blind; we are. Even games and lots follow preordered course; rejects proverbs that fools are fortunate.read · scan

Blaise Pascal, LettersVol. 48

• p. 330–331Denies that the misfortune is an effect of chance.read · scan

Alexander Pope, Solitude; On a Certain Lady at Court; Essay on ManVol. 40

• p. 413–415Pope declares that what seems chance is direction we cannot see; apparent accident is hidden design within providential order.read · scan
• p. 415Reason and passion on life's ocean; no real treatment of chance.read · scan
• p. 415Ruling passion and reason; no treatment of chance.read · scan
• p. 415Passions turned to virtue; not about chance.read · scan
• p. 415Frailties and providence; no chance.read · scan
• p. 415–422Human folly and universal order; no chance.read · scan

2.Fortune as a power: blind, fickle and turning her wheel

William Shakespeare, The Tragedy of Hamlet, Prince of DenmarkVol. 46

• p. 152Whether love leads fortune or fortune love is left in question.read · scan

Ben Jonson, The AlchemistVol. 47

• p. 608–609Dapper is blindfolded and given 'the petticoat of fortune'; Fortune is invoked to lure him.read · scan

2a.The wheel and inconstancy of fortune

Sophocles, Oedipus the KingVol. 8

• p. 237Oedipus calls himself the child of Fortune, whose months have made him both high and low.read · scan

Sophocles, AntigoneVol. 8

• p. 292–293Messenger says chance raises and lowers men; no one can foretell a man's appointed lot.read · scan

Virgil, The AeneidVol. 13

• p. 321–325Aeneas warns of the slippery state of humankind and fickle fortune.read · scan
• p. 355Fortune gave Aeneas wishes but refused the best, Pallas's safe return.read · scan
• p. 366Good unexpected, evils unforeseen appear by turns as fortune shifts the scene.read · scan

Tacitus, GermanyVol. 33

• p. 109They count fortune slippery and uncertain, bravery secure.read · scan

Pliny the Younger, Letters of PlinyVol. 9

• p. 252–253Licinianus laments Fortune's caprice in turning senators into rhetoricians and rhetoricians into senators.read · scan
• p. 254–255Licinianus in his declamations avenges himself upon Fortune.read · scan

Stories from the Thousand and One NightsVol. 16

• p. 15–16Verses say fortune afflicts the eminent, as only fruit-bearing trees are stoned.read · scan
• p. 67–68The servant says fortune betrayed the father: troops turned false and the Wezir killed him.read · scan
• p. 157–158The verse says fortune often destroys plans, so pleasure should not be deferred.read · scan
• p. 201–202Fortune's reversal: verses warn that days of ease deceive and gloom follows brightness.read · scan

The Story of the Volsungs and NiblungsVol. 49

• p. 354–355Gudrun warns that trust in luck is wavering and may change.read · scan

Dante Alighieri, ParadiseVol. 20

• p. 352–354Fortune deals with Florence as the moon governs the strandread · scan

Geoffrey Chaucer, The Prologue to the Canterbury Tales; The Nun's Priest's TaleVol. 40

• p. 48Fortune turns suddenly, reversing the hope and pride of the cock's enemy.read · scan

Amerigo Vespucci, Amerigo Vespucci's Account of His First VoyageVol. 43

• p. 28He saw Fortune's inconstant shifting, raising man to the wheel's summit then despoiling him of borrowed riches, and so quit trade.read · scan

Benvenuto Cellini, The Autobiography of Benvenuto CelliniVol. 31

• p. 226Cellini's lucky pigeon shot, made just before his ruin, prompts the remark that Fortune has many ways to destroy a man.read · scan
• p. 286–288Blows of fortune, good or evil, come unforeseen; near misses count as nothing, and past lessons never prepare us for fortune's new ways.read · scan

Michel de Montaigne, That We Should Not Judge of Our Happiness Until After Our DeathVol. 32

• p. 5–6Uncertainty and vicissitude of human things overturn states by slight occasions, as examples of fallen rulers show.read · scan
• p. 6–7Fortune watches the last day to overthrow in a moment what she built over years.read · scan

Miguel de Cervantes, The History of Don Quixote of the Mancha, Part IVol. 14

• p. 55Curate says fortune may change success, what is lost today may be won tomorrow.read · scan
• p. 111–114Sancho observes nothing in life is secure; fortune and reversal mark a knight's career.read · scan
• p. 117Sancho says knight-errantry turns on fortune: a beaten man may become an emperor, and seeking one thing one finds another.read · scan
• p. 135Both rely on fortune to supply an enchantment-proof sword and to treat Sancho more liberally.read · scan
• p. 165Fortune shuts one door and opens another, Quixote says of the failed adventure.read · scan
• p. 265–266Disaster follows disaster; fortune gives no remedy to difficulties as it did before.read · scan
• p. 427Fortune turned against the valiant captain just when he expected her favour.read · scan

Francis Bacon, Essays, Civil and MoralVol. 3

• p. 60–61Self-lovers become sacrifices to the inconstancy of fortune they sought to pinion.read · scan

William Shakespeare, The Tragedy of Hamlet, Prince of DenmarkVol. 46

• p. 138The speech curses strumpet Fortune and asks the gods to break her wheel.read · scan

William Shakespeare, The Tragedy of King LearVol. 46

• p. 247–252Kent bids Fortune turn her wheel; a good man's fortune may wear out at heels, and misery alone sees miracles.read · scan
• p. 278–280Fortune's wheel: the lowest wretch stands in hope; the worst returns to laughter.read · scan
• p. 315Kent says Fortune brags of two she loved and hated; Lear is one.read · scan

John Donne, PoemsVol. 40

• p. 306–308Man's power is feeble: good fortune cannot add an hour, yet bad chance we strengthen by our own fear.read · scan

Pierre Corneille, PolyeucteVol. 26

• p. 81Fortune is said to have withheld her gifts and made Pauline her slave.read · scan
• p. 81–84Fortune's wheel turns: Severus, once lost, is now raised to honor, alarming Felix.read · scan
• p. 87Fortune's gifts arrive too late and turn to dross.read · scan

Molière, Tartuffe, or The HypocriteVol. 26

• p. 284–287Dorine remarks fortune has repaid Orgon for doubting others.read · scan

John Dryden, All for Love; or, The World Well LostVol. 18

• p. 88–90False Fortune likened to a fawning strumpet flattering the bankrupt prodigal Antony before leaving him.read · scan

John Dryden, PoemsVol. 40

• p. 391–393Alexander revolves the various turns of chance below when he hears Darius' fall from high estate.read · scan

William Penn, More Fruits of SolitudeVol. 1

• p. 381–382Ambitious men are exposed to the blasts of fortune.read · scan

Alison Rutherford Cockburn, PoemsVol. 41

• p. 482Fickle Fortune gives and takes away favours; her smiles and frowns no longer move the speaker.read · scan

Gotthold Ephraim Lessing, Minna von Barnhelm, or The Soldier's FortuneVol. 26

• p. 356–357Tellheim speaks of better luck in the game of life and a change of fortune.read · scan

Richard Brinsley Sheridan, The School for ScandalVol. 18

• p. 176–177Joseph laments that Fortune has played him a trick, destroying his schemes in a moment.read · scan

Robert Burns, Poems and SongsVol. 6

• p. 21–22Fickle Fortune promised fair and performed ill, destroying the speaker's joys and hopes like a storm after a flowery morning.read · scan
• p. 27–28Friends hope for a higher chance but fortune may betray her.read · scan
• p. 35–37Fickle Fortune deceived and bereaved him; luckless Fortune's storms laid his blossoms low.read · scan
• p. 37–38Fortune's favour courted in vain; some unseen cause frustrates every endeavour and hope is mistaken.read · scan
• p. 38–40Fortune's frown and unforeseen misfortune dog his earnings.read · scan
• p. 168–170Some find flowery spots without toil, others chase fortune; fickle fortune's moon wanes.read · scan
• p. 180–181Burns laments the card that Fortune dealt him.read · scan
• p. 200–202Fickle fortune forces him across the searead · scan
• p. 447–449Time and Chance are but a tide.read · scan

Thomas Carlyle, Sir Walter ScottVol. 25

• p. 447Sudden collapse of the Constable mountain shows fortune's abrupt reversal.read · scan
• p. 448Fortune stands on a restless globe; ambition never profited any man.read · scan

Alfred, Lord Tennyson, PoemsVol. 42

• p. 976–977Fortune's wheel raising and lowering people, indifferent to them.read · scan

John Ruskin, Sesame and LiliesVol. 28

• p. 139Scott's young men are playthings of fantastic fortune.read · scan

James Russell Lowell, Abraham LincolnVol. 28

• p. 432An unknown man lifted from the crowd by seemingly blind fortune to the most dangerous eminence.read · scan

Dante Gabriel Rossetti, PoemsVol. 42

• p. 1165–1166The song's vision of Fortune's wheel and the pit beneath, from which none return.read · scan

2b.Fortune blind and unjust to the deserving

Marcus Tullius Cicero, On FriendshipVol. 9

• p. 27–28Fortune is blind and blinds her favourites to true friends.read · scan

Benvenuto Cellini, The Autobiography of Benvenuto CelliniVol. 31

• p. 184–185The slander says Pope Clement had bad luck and that Pope Paul has only good luck.read · scan
• p. 391–392Cellini laments that ill Fortune crushes the honest man while luck rewards a rascal; honesty and talent alone do not serve in this world.read · scan
• p. 420The marble's fate in Ammanato's hands is called worse than in Bandinello's; assignment turns on favoritism rather than merit.read · scan
• p. 426–427Ammanato's award of the marble is ironically called an undeserved favor of Fortune.read · scan

Miguel de Cervantes, The History of Don Quixote of the Mancha, Part IVol. 14

• p. 343Camilla complains that adverse fortune will not satisfy her desires.read · scan

Francis Bacon, Essays, Civil and MoralVol. 3

• p. 99Fortune is blind yet not invisible; small hidden virtues and faculties make men fortunate; a little folly helps, too much honesty does not.read · scan

William Shakespeare, The Tragedy of Hamlet, Prince of DenmarkVol. 46

• p. 131–132Rosencrantz and Guildenstern banter about living in Fortune's favour, calling her a strumpet; fortune's caprice governs men's stations.read · scan

William Shakespeare, The Tragedy of King LearVol. 46

• p. 293–296Lear calls himself the natural fool of fortune; Edgar is made tame to fortune's blows.read · scan
• p. 306Cordelia speaks of false Fortune's frown; good meaning may bring the worst.read · scan

Ben Jonson, The AlchemistVol. 47

• p. 542Opens with Fortune favouring fools.read · scan

John Webster, The Duchess of MalfiVol. 47

• p. 841–843Bosola calls seeking Fortune the fool's pilgrimage.read · scan

Philip Massinger, A New Way to Pay Old DebtsVol. 47

• p. 862–866Wellborn blames blind Fortune for spending her malice on him.read · scan

John Milton, Paradise LostVol. 4

• p. 108Complaint that Chance and Force enthrall free Virtue.read · scan

John Dryden, All for Love; or, The World Well LostVol. 18

• p. 39–42Antony calls Octavius the minion of blind chance who owes nothing to virtue.read · scan

James Thomson, Rule, Britannia; To FortuneVol. 40

• p. 442–443Fortune is addressed as a relentless foe that intervenes between lovers.read · scan

Gotthold Ephraim Lessing, Minna von Barnhelm, or The Soldier's FortuneVol. 26

• p. 370–371Tellheim complains that chance delights in helping the faithless by returning the ring.read · scan

Johann Wolfgang von Goethe, EgmontVol. 19

• p. 304–305Alva says fortune is capricious, ennobling the worthless and dishonouring the most carefully planned schemes.read · scan

Robert Burns, Poems and SongsVol. 6

• p. 23–25The poor man is discarded by Fortune and reviled.read · scan
• p. 145–147Poet asks Fortune to keep his whisky and rhyme and deal out the rest with her blind skill.read · scan
• p. 321–323The dull think 'fools are Fortune's care' when disappointed.read · scan
• p. 506–507Let fortune's wheel run at random; fools lose and knaves win, but love holds firm.read · scan

2c.Fortune as divine minister or as a force defied

Virgil, The AeneidVol. 13

• p. 197Fortune is to be subdued by suffering well: flee when she frowns, pursue when she calls.read · scan

Marcus Aurelius, The Meditations of Marcus AureliusVol. 2

• p. 231–232Fortune lost I know not how is redefined as inner good fortune.read · scan

Stories from the Thousand and One NightsVol. 16

• p. 294–295God is said to have removed the evils of fortune from him.read · scan

Dante Alighieri, HellVol. 20

• p. 28Virgil describes Fortune as a divine minister shifting worldly goods from race to race, beyond human wisdom.read · scan
• p. 61Dante accepts Fortune's wheel calmly, with his conscience clear.read · scan

William Roper, The Life of Sir Thomas MoreVol. 36

• p. 114–125His verses scorn flattering fortune's smiles, saying she shall not beguile him.read · scan

Benvenuto Cellini, The Autobiography of Benvenuto CelliniVol. 31

• p. 10–11The wheel of Fortune image contrasted with steadfast Virtue.read · scan

Miguel de Cervantes, The History of Don Quixote of the Mancha, Part IVol. 14

• p. 173–174Sancho would let fortune run where it may.read · scan
• p. 432–433Good fortune serves only those who manfully resist fortune.read · scan

William Shakespeare, The Tragedy of Hamlet, Prince of DenmarkVol. 46

• p. 149Fortune's buffets and rewards are compared to a pipe Fortune plays on.read · scan

William Shakespeare, The Tragedy of MacbethVol. 46

• p. 321–322Fortune smiles on the rebel's quarrel like a whore, but Macbeth disdains her.read · scan

John Milton, Poems Written at Horton, 1632-1638Vol. 4

• p. 39–40Chance named among things triumphed over after death.read · scan
• p. 57He dismisses the power erring men call Chance against virtue.read · scan

Robert Burns, Poems and SongsVol. 6

• p. 65–66However Fortune kicks the ball, the honest heart has cause to smile.read · scan
• p. 82–84Bids friend not mind Fortune's rough usage; he will laugh and sing though beggared.read · scan
• p. 507–509Blind Chance may go as she will; the poet welcomes pleasure or pain alike.read · scan

William Ernest Henley, PoemsVol. 42

• p. 1209–1211Bludgeonings of chance leave his head bloody but unbowed.read · scan

3.Fortune and human merit, will and opportunity

3a.The mastery of fortune by merit and will

See also: Monarchy 2b · Prudence 8d

Ecclesiastes; or, The PreacherVol. 44

• p. 347–348Man cannot know what evil will come, so sow diligently in morning and evening, not knowing which will prosper.read · scan

Marcus Tullius Cicero, On FriendshipVol. 9

• p. 21–22Escaping all the perils to friendship requires wisdom and good luck.read · scan

Marcus Tullius Cicero, Letters of CiceroVol. 9

• p. 152Success is said to be left in no respect to chance.read · scan

Plutarch, DemosthenesVol. 12

• p. 197–198He would not expose his faculty to the mercy of chance by speaking on the sudden.read · scan

Niccolò Machiavelli, The PrinceVol. 36

• p. 5–7Speaks of Fortune's malignity toward him and the fortune and merit that promise the prince eminence.read · scan
• p. 19Rising to princedom requires merit or good fortune; relying less on Fortune often brings better success.read · scan
• p. 20Great founders owed Fortune only opportunity; their merit let them recognize and use it.read · scan
• p. 21Hiero owed Fortune only his opportunity; merit did the rest.read · scan
• p. 22Princes who rise by fortune or favour rise easily but cannot hold, being dependent on others' fortunes.read · scan
• p. 23Sforza's merit versus Borgia's dependence on his father's fortune; Borgia's fall attributed to malignity of Fortune.read · scan
• p. 27Borgia's schemes fail because his father's death and his own illness came unforeseen.read · scan
• p. 28Only his father's short life and his illness prevented success.read · scan
• p. 30Machiavelli argues Agathocles' rise owed little to Fortune, since he climbed by military service, hardship and hazard.read · scan
• p. 42–43Florentines safe through fortune: captains lost, had rivals, or turned ambitions elsewhere.read · scan
• p. 45Pope Julius escaped the consequences of his rashness only through good fortune.read · scan
• p. 47A prince without national arms is wholly dependent on Fortune.read · scan
• p. 50A wise prince prepares in peace to resist the blows of Fortune.read · scan
• p. 69–70Fortune raises enemies against a new prince so he can gain reputation by overcoming them.read · scan
• p. 80Fortune rules perhaps half of our actions; unexpected great changes seem to leave everything to chance.read · scan

Sir Philip Sidney, The Defense of PoesyVol. 27

• p. 19In the historian's bare account, fortune often overrules the best wisdom.read · scan

Francis Bacon, Essays, Civil and MoralVol. 3

• p. 49Merely shifting dangers is trying masteries with fortune; no one can tell whence the spark comes.read · scan
• p. 52–53Without counsel, things are tossed on the waves of fortune.read · scan
• p. 98–99Outward accidents conduce to fortune, yet a man's fortune is chiefly in his own hands; one man's folly is another's fortune.read · scan
• p. 99Fortune is blind yet not invisible; small hidden virtues and faculties make men fortunate; a little folly helps, too much honesty does not.read · scan
• p. 100–101Those who ascribe everything to their own wisdom end unfortunate, like Timotheus; some fortunes flow with the ease of Homer's verses.read · scan

William Shakespeare, The Tragedy of MacbethVol. 46

• p. 327–330Macbeth muses that if chance will have him king, chance may crown him without his effort.read · scan

Thomas Hobbes, Of Man, Being the First Part of LeviathanVol. 34

• p. 403–404An action tending to destruction is not wise merely because an unforeseen accident may turn it to benefit.read · scan

Blaise Pascal, ThoughtsVol. 48

• p. 46–47Pascal's moods are unconnected with weather or fortune; he struggles against luck and masters it gaily.read · scan

John Bunyan, The Pilgrim's ProgressVol. 15

• p. 103–104By-ends says he had the luck to jump with the times' way and profit.read · scan

Samuel Johnson, Life of Addison, 1672-1719Vol. 27

• p. 184Human excellence is the product of good luck improved by genius.read · scan

Ralph Waldo Emerson, Self-RelianceVol. 5

• p. 82–83Most men gamble with Fortune; one who works by will and deals with cause and effect chains the wheel of Chance.read · scan

Ralph Waldo Emerson, English TraitsVol. 5

• p. 359–360No luck in making good steel; the English do not run for luck.read · scan

3b.Seizing opportunity and occasion

Virgil, The AeneidVol. 13

• p. 293Juno tells Turnus to snatch the hour, an opportunity while Aeneas is absent.read · scan
• p. 325Turnus treats Fortune as sending the opportunity to meet the foe at advantage.read · scan

Plutarch, CaesarVol. 12

• p. 307Caesar follows the current of his good fortune to seize the opportunity.read · scan

Miguel de Cervantes, The History of Don Quixote of the Mancha, Part IVol. 14

• p. 11–12Speaker claims to have held fortune prostrate and seized Occasion's top.read · scan

Francis Bacon, Essays, Civil and MoralVol. 3

• p. 56Fortune and occasion are like a market; opportunity must be seized at the right moment before it passes.read · scan

William Shakespeare, The Tragedy of King LearVol. 46

• p. 242Edmund calls on 'Briefness and fortune' to work his plot.read · scan

Thomas Dekker, The Shoemaker's HolidayVol. 47

• p. 479–480Lacy trusts Fortune and his disguise to help him see Rose again.read · scan

3c.Good luck in war and adventure

Aeschylus, The Libation-BearersVol. 8

• p. 107–109Prayer that no chance mar Orestes' course; Fortune's breeze to guide the state.read · scan

Virgil, The AeneidVol. 13

• p. 111–113Coroebus takes Fortune's first success as guide; the stratagem turns fatal.read · scan
• p. 178Chance aids their daring when Sergesthus's galley strikes the rock.read · scan
• p. 178Fortune supplies both crews; the lead changes and the race is nearly shared.read · scan
• p. 178Aeneas says the prize goes where fortune placed it, and that he will mend fortune's errors.read · scan
• p. 178Nisus wishes fortune would reward his fall as well.read · scan
• p. 321Success is left to Fortune's favor as the lots of the fates fall.read · scan
• p. 344Equal deaths are dealt with equal chance, victors and vanquished alternating.read · scan
• p. 366Battle fortunes surge back and forth like waves, each side twice victor and twice repelled.read · scan
• p. 412Courage conspires with chance as fortunes are equal; Jove weighs the champions' fates in scales.read · scan

Plutarch, PericlesVol. 12

• p. 62Pericles's absence caused a miscalculation that reversed his success.read · scan
• p. 75–76Pericles says his victories owed as much to fortune as to anything else.read · scan

Plutarch, CoriolanusVol. 12

• p. 152Marcius says fortune has opened Corioli to conquerors.read · scan
• p. 172–173Tullus calls Marcius equally valiant and far more fortunate; a single man's loss and gain changes the fortunes of two nations.read · scan
• p. 176–177Romans place their hopes in time and extraordinary accidents of fortune.read · scan

Plutarch, CaesarVol. 12

• p. 296–297Caesar trusts in his fortune amid storm; the attempt fails.read · scan
• p. 297Pompey fails to finish his success through over-caution or ill fortune.read · scan

Plutarch, AntonyVol. 12

• p. 346–347Caesar and Antony were said to be more fortunate through their lieutenants than in person.read · scan
• p. 373–374Antony, long inured to changes of good and evil fortune, abandons his army; news of his defeat saves Chaeronea.read · scan

Tacitus, GermanyVol. 33

• p. 112–113Cattan fortune became counted as wisdom after conquering the Cheruscans.read · scan

Pliny the Younger, Letters of PlinyVol. 9

• p. 284'Fortune favours the brave' as he steers into danger.read · scan

Jean Froissart, The Chronicles of FroissartVol. 35

• p. 27The storm clears so the sun shines in French eyes and on English backs, an accident favouring the English.read · scan
• p. 48Fortunes of individual fights turn on hap, such as a dropped sword; war's adventures are said to be marvellous.read · scan
• p. 84–85Knights remark that war often brings losses.read · scan
• p. 85The Scots' fortune: the noise of the English raid gave them time to arm.read · scan
• p. 91–92Froissart remarks that fortune is always changeable, as the outnumbered Scots win after first being driven back.read · scan
• p. 94–95Lindsay, lost in dark and mist, blunders into the bishop's party and is captured: 'such is the adventures of arms.'read · scan

Sir Francis Drake, Sir Francis Drake RevivedVol. 33

• p. 175A rich booty is lost through one man's recklessness and a traveller's carefulness; fortune turns the ambush to failure.read · scan
• p. 184–185A change of wind and the pilot's conjecture about being discovered thwart the plan.read · scan

Miguel de Cervantes, The History of Don Quixote of the Mancha, Part IVol. 14

• p. 384–385He rose to captain by good fortune rather than deserts, and was unfortunate on the victorious day.read · scan

Captain Walter Bigges, Drake's Great ArmadaVol. 33

• p. 248Whether to continue trying their fortune in further enterprises.read · scan

Sir Walter Raleigh, The Discovery of GuianaVol. 33

• p. 308In battle fortune is as likely to prevail as virtue, so defensive war is uncertain.read · scan

William Shakespeare, The Tragedy of King LearVol. 46

• p. 304–306Edgar wishes Albany that Fortune love him before the battle.read · scan

Benjamin Franklin, His AutobiographyVol. 1

• p. 66He credits great good luck for escaping disease.read · scan
• p. 132–133Franklin counts the timely payment before the battle as good luck.read · scan
• p. 137–138Franklin holds that the outcome of war is uncertain and cannot be presumed.read · scan

Adam Smith, An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of NationsVol. 10

• p. 403Fortune realized the Spaniards' extravagant hopes in Mexico and Peru through accidents no human wisdom could foresee; other nations were disappointed.read · scan

James Russell Lowell, Abraham LincolnVol. 28

• p. 430Whether numbers multiply confidence or discouragement is often a matter of chance.read · scan

Frank Aretas Haskell, The Battle of GettysburgVol. 43

• p. 339Notes evils as blessings in disguise: the repulse and Reynolds's death led to a position that perhaps gave victory.read · scan

4.Accident and the unforeseen in human affairs

4a.Small accidents with great consequences

Herodotus, An Account of EgyptVol. 33

• p. 75–76The chief-priest's miscount of cups, giving eleven for twelve kings, sets the accident going.read · scan

Euripides, The BacchaeVol. 8

• p. 435–436The closing chorus notes expected ends do not come and paths open where none thought.read · scan

Plato, PhaedoVol. 2

• p. 45–46The delay of his execution was an accident: the ship's stern was crowned the day before his trial.read · scan

Ecclesiastes; or, The PreacherVol. 44

• p. 345–346Race not to the swift; time and chance befall all, and man is snared suddenly like fish in a net.read · scan

Stories from the Thousand and One NightsVol. 16

• p. 15A casual act, throwing a date stone, unforeseeably kills a jinni's son.read · scan
• p. 93An accidental slip with a knife causes the death despite his good intentions.read · scan

Sir Thomas More, UtopiaVol. 36

• p. 241Utopia's location was lost through an unlucky chance: a whisper and a cough drowned out Hythloday's words.read · scan

Benvenuto Cellini, The Autobiography of Benvenuto CelliniVol. 31

• p. 132–133A stone hidden in the mud turns a careless throw into apparent homicide.read · scan
• p. 220Rain stops at the fourth cannon discharge, and Cellini is credited as sole cause of the festival's success.read · scan

Michel de Montaigne, Of FriendshipVol. 32

• p. 72His compositions are framed by chance, and fortune rarely produces such a friendship once in three ages.read · scan

Michel de Montaigne, Of BookesVol. 32

• p. 87–89Fortune alone marshals his rhapsodies.read · scan

Francis Bacon, Proœmium, Epistle Dedicatory, Preface, and Plan of the Instauratio MagnaVol. 39

• p. 117–119He notes accident and luck play a part in what men think as well as do.read · scan

Ben Jonson, The AlchemistVol. 47

• p. 641–642The master's unexpected return overturns the confederates' plans, a sudden reversal of fortune.read · scan

Blaise Pascal, ThoughtsVol. 48

• p. 62–63A tiny accident like the shape of a nose alters world history.read · scan
• p. 65–66Cromwell's power ended by a grain of gravel; small accidents overturn great designs.read · scan

John Dryden, Preface to Fables, Ancient and ModernVol. 39

• p. 169–170Renewal of Chaucer's fame, if wholly chance, is extraordinary.read · scan

Alexander Pope, Solitude; On a Certain Lady at Court; Essay on ManVol. 40

• p. 430Ills and accidents befall all alike, virtuous or not, as with Falkland and Turenne.read · scan

Samuel Johnson, Preface to the English DictionaryVol. 39

• p. 182–183English has been left to spread by chance into wild exuberance, subject to time, fashion and caprice.read · scan

Samuel Johnson, Preface to ShakespeareVol. 39

• p. 247The critic's chance of error is renewed at every attempt through slight misapprehension or inattention.read · scan

Jean-Jacques Rousseau, A Discourse upon the Origin and the Foundation of the Inequality among MankindVol. 34

• p. 214The political state was in a manner the work of chance.read · scan

Jean-Jacques Rousseau, Profession of Faith of a Savoyard VicarVol. 34

• p. 283–284Choice of religion is the effect of accident.read · scan

Adam Smith, An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of NationsVol. 10

• p. 61–62Such price enhancements are effects of particular accidents lasting sometimes many years.read · scan
• p. 90Profit fluctuates with variations in price, the fortune of rivals and customers, and accidents to goods.read · scan
• p. 117–118Uncertain harvests and accidental variation in demand cause fluctuating prices.read · scan
• p. 179–180Accidents in supply may raise it faster than demand, altering price of silver and corn.read · scan
• p. 480The landlord's gain from the fixed valuation is owing to circumstances extraneous to the tax, happening to fall out favourably.read · scan

Johann Wolfgang von Goethe, The Tragedy of Faust, Part IVol. 19

• p. 60–61Faust says chance and accident caught the devil when the dog sprang in.read · scan

Johann Wolfgang von Goethe, EgmontVol. 19

• p. 306–307A carefully matured plan may be lost by Orange's absence; the outcome is a lottery of prize or blank.read · scan
• p. 313–315Alva says chance prevented Egmont from fuller disclosure of his sentiments.read · scan

Richard Brinsley Sheridan, The School for ScandalVol. 18

• p. 179–181Sir Oliver's arrival is lamented as cruel ill fortune and unlucky timing for Joseph.read · scan

Robert Burns, Poems and SongsVol. 6

• p. 333–334Darkest terrors may prove vain and brightest hopes fail.read · scan

Friedrich Schiller, William TellVol. 26

• p. 467–468Stussi says mischance and misery befall everywhere; bridal and burial tread close together.read · scan

Friedrich von Schiller, Letters upon the Aesthetic Education of ManVol. 32

• p. 283–284Only the favour of chance can break the bonds of the physical state.read · scan

Alessandro Manzoni, I Promessi Sposi (The Betrothed)Vol. 21

• p. 640A trifle may decide a man's whole life; the plague's chance vacancy of a mill turns Renzo's fortunes.read · scan

Thomas Carlyle, Sir Walter ScottVol. 25

• p. 402–403Popularity is remarkable fortune, an accident rather than a quality of the man.read · scan
• p. 403–404Popularity is an accident, not a quality.read · scan
• p. 408Happy accident makes some vocal; circumstance decides whether talent emerges, as with Johnson and Shakespeare.read · scan

Ralph Waldo Emerson, The PoetVol. 5

• p. 171The seed thrown to a new place escapes the accidents that destroyed its parent.read · scan

John Ruskin, Sesame and LiliesVol. 28

• p. 95–96Most of our associations are determined by chance or necessity within a narrow circle.read · scan

Edward Augustus Freeman, Race and LanguageVol. 28

• p. 257–258National arrangements of the Spanish peninsula are due to historical accidents; a different marriage would have altered them.read · scan

4b.Coincidence and the question of providence

Sophocles, AntigoneVol. 8

• p. 260–266Guard says finding the culprit is left to chance and thanks the gods for unhoped safety.read · scan

Plutarch, DemosthenesVol. 12

• p. 192–193Accidental resemblances in the two lives are attributed to fortune.read · scan

Plutarch, CaesarVol. 12

• p. 316–317Plutarch weighs whether the coincidences of the murder, the note unread and the place, were chance or supernatural guidance.read · scan
• p. 320–321Cassius killing himself with the same dagger used on Caesar is called a remarkable human coincidence.read · scan

Blaise Pascal, ThoughtsVol. 48

• p. 262A chance word, Galilee, led Pilate to send Jesus to Herod, apparently accomplishing the mystery of judgment by Jews and Gentiles.read · scan

Oliver Wendell Holmes, The Contagiousness of Puerperal FeverVol. 38

• p. 243–244Holmes ridicules calling repeated cases following one practitioner a coincidence, comparing to dagger and poison.read · scan

4c.Storms, shipwrecks and mishaps at sea

Aeschylus, AgamemnonVol. 8

• p. 30–33Saving Fortune steered the herald's ship through the storm while others perished.read · scan

Plutarch, AntonyVol. 12

• p. 327Sudden shifts of wind rescue Antony and wreck the pursuing enemy fleet.read · scan

Stories from the Thousand and One NightsVol. 16

• p. 235An apparent island proves to be a great fish that sinks, an unforeseen disaster drowning those left.read · scan
• p. 260A tempest wrecks the ship; survivors cast on an island.read · scan

The Voyages to VinlandVol. 43

• p. 13–14Driven about the sea all summer, the ship loses reckoning and makes land by accident in Greenland.read · scan

Geoffrey Chaucer, The Prologue to the Canterbury Tales; The Nun's Priest's TaleVol. 40

• p. 40The ship breaks by accident, cause unknown.read · scan

Sir Francis Drake, Sir Francis Drake RevivedVol. 33

• p. 189–190Storm and contrary wind delay the pinnaces, while also driving the Spaniards home.read · scan

Miguel de Cervantes, The History of Don Quixote of the Mancha, Part IVol. 14

• p. 277The curate teasingly speaks of embarking by fortune and a prosperous wind, while the feigned princess claims a hard voyage to find Don Quixote.read · scan
• p. 413Contrary wind and rough sea force them from their course toward Mallorca to Oran.read · scan
• p. 415Omen of the Cape of the ill Christian woman, yet it proves a haven; fortune and tradition of misfortune.read · scan

Captain Walter Bigges, Drake's Great ArmadaVol. 33

• p. 252–253Leaking ship and lack of favourable wind and fresh water delay the fleet by misfortune.read · scan
• p. 257A strange extraordinary storm wrecks boats and drives away the ship meant for Lane's colonists.read · scan

Edward Haies, Sir Humphrey Gilbert's Voyage to NewfoundlandVol. 33

• p. 287Current and flats bring unforeseen loss of the Admiral with all men and provisions.read · scan

Francis Pretty, Sir Francis Drake's Famous Voyage Round the WorldVol. 33

• p. 199A terrible tempest forces the fleet back to port, dismasting the Admiral and driving a ship ashore, an unforeseen hazard of the voyage.read · scan
• p. 207–208Storms drive the fleet far off course and one ship, the Marigold, goes down with all hands.read · scan

William Shakespeare, The TempestVol. 46

• p. 461Stephano says 'all is but fortune' as he is driven in.read · scan

Benjamin Franklin, His AutobiographyVol. 1

• p. 157–159An accidental yaw reveals the light in time, saving the ship from wreck.read · scan

Adam Smith, An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of NationsVol. 10

• p. 304–305Landed capital is less liable to accident than the trader's, exposed to winds, waves and human folly.read · scan

Henry Wadsworth Longfellow, PoemsVol. 42

• p. 1283–1284Tales of wrecks, pirates and lost ships show the chance and change of a sailor's life.read · scan

Charles Darwin, The Voyage of the BeagleVol. 29

• p. 286–287Darwin calls the discovery of the harbour a singular piece of good fortune that saved the castaway whalers from perishing.read · scan

Richard Henry Dana, Jr., Two Years Before the MastVol. 23

• p. 108–109Anchors go down foul and the brig drifts into other vessels, an unlucky mishap.read · scan
• p. 175–176Crew regard the ship as 'lucky,' having never met an accident and always making short passages.read · scan
• p. 272–274The ship unexpectedly sticks on the harbor bar and must return, as the crew grumbles that they are tied to California.read · scan
• p. 308Gale and fog end the plan to enter the straits, sending the ship south to the Horn again.read · scan
• p. 313Ill luck: calm and then fiercest storm just as the ship nearly rounds the Cape.read · scan
• p. 350A great ship looms out of the fog and narrowly misses collision; the crew hopes fortune will favor arrival.read · scan

4d.Narrow escapes and lethal freaks

Virgil, The AeneidVol. 13

• p. 325Rhoeteus dies by an unintended, casual blow meant for another.read · scan

Plutarch, ThemistoclesVol. 12

• p. 31A fallen pack-horse and wet tapestry lead the assassins to mistake the tent, so he escapes.read · scan

Benvenuto Cellini, The Autobiography of Benvenuto CelliniVol. 31

• p. 65Frightened horses and mishaps cause the soldiers to wound themselves and each other in the confusion.read · scan
• p. 69In the fog a shot happens to kill the enemy commander, unknown until later.read · scan
• p. 73The falling cask narrowly misses Farnese and Salviati just as they step apart quarrelling.read · scan
• p. 263The arquebuse goes off of itself, aimed too high, and accidentally kills the postmaster.read · scan

Ambroise Paré, Journeys in Diverse PlacesVol. 38

• p. 10A gunner's stupid mishap ignites powder, burning men and revealing the cannons.read · scan
• p. 35–36A priest's premature grenade sets off the whole store of fires, a disaster that also deceives the enemy.read · scan

Michel de Montaigne, That to Philosophise Is to Learne How to DieVol. 32

• p. 12–13Accidents like a falling tortoise shell or a tennis ball kill unforeseeably; no man can guard against every hour.read · scan

Miguel de Cervantes, The History of Don Quixote of the Mancha, Part IVol. 14

• p. 70–71Good fortune turns the Biscaine's sword awry, sparing Quixote and reserving him for greater affairs.read · scan

William Shakespeare, The Tragedy of Hamlet, Prince of DenmarkVol. 46

• p. 205–207The Queen unwittingly drinks the poisoned cup, and rapiers are exchanged in scuffling.read · scan

Adam Smith, An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of NationsVol. 10

• p. 45Losses of metals by accident at sea and land require continual importation.read · scan

Percy Bysshe Shelley, The CenciVol. 18

• p. 318Giacomo asks if men are fools of contingencies when Cenci passes the ambush an hour early; heaven seems to mock weakness.read · scan

Charles Darwin, The Voyage of the BeagleVol. 29

• p. 121An extraordinary hailstorm killed deer, ostriches and birds, an unforeseen event Darwin corroborates with other accounts.read · scan
• p. 307Daytime timing of the shock saved many lives.read · scan

Richard Henry Dana, Jr., Two Years Before the MastVol. 23

• p. 332Author narrowly escapes a fall when the yard's tie parts; sailors' lives are saved by an instant or a swinging rope.read · scan

Frank Aretas Haskell, The Battle of GettysburgVol. 43

• p. 371–374Round shot play strange freaks: a knapsack is destroyed while its bearer is unharmed, and a stone is shattered beside the unhurt man.read · scan

5.Chance in tales, plots and comic chains of accidents

5a.Comic chains of accident

Stories from the Thousand and One NightsVol. 16

• p. 115Accidental death by a fish bone sets off the chain of events.read · scan
• p. 116The physician stumbles on the corpse in the dark, a mishap that passes the body to the neighbour.read · scan
• p. 117A mistaken identity and a mallet blow accidentally kill the humpback, the first link in a comic chain of accidents.read · scan
• p. 117–118The drunken broker's blow kills the already-dead humpback by mistaken assumption of theft.read · scan
• p. 118The humpback's death results from a chain of accidents: choking on fish, a stumble, a blow.read · scan
• p. 189–190The humpback chokes on fish and his corpse is passed from house to house by accident.read · scan

Thomas Dekker, The Shoemaker's HolidayVol. 47

• p. 485Puns on Luck: Rose wishes Luck would send Hammon on his way.read · scan

Jacob and Wilhelm Grimm, Household TalesVol. 17

• p. 170Hans takes each lucky meeting and exchange as good fortune, though each trade leaves him worse off.read · scan
• p. 172Hans believes he was born with a caul and that luck gives him everything he wants.read · scan

5b.Happy and unlucky meetings in fiction

Virgil, The AeneidVol. 13

• p. 87Aeneas by chance turns his eyes and sees friends scattered by the tempest.read · scan
• p. 340By chance a ship lies ready by the shore, aiding the deception.read · scan

Stories from the Thousand and One NightsVol. 16

• p. 25He calls the strange haul a piece of fortune.read · scan

Sir Thomas Malory, The Holy GrailVol. 35

• p. 124–126The knights ride and fight by fortune, and by fortune slay the seven brethren.read · scan

Benvenuto Cellini, The Autobiography of Benvenuto CelliniVol. 31

• p. 261He meets the clockmaker Cherubino by accident on the journey.read · scan
• p. 295–296The King and Cellini agree their luck is equal in finding each other; Cellini blames ill luck for his misstep with Madame d'Etampes.read · scan

Miguel de Cervantes, The History of Don Quixote of the Mancha, Part IVol. 14

• p. 23–24His adventure begins by chance at an inn where two travelling women happen to lodge.read · scan
• p. 57–58Quixote says chances befall knights-adventurers in unexpected ways, so he may give more than promised.read · scan
• p. 68–69The narrator credits Heaven, chance and fortune for his finding the Arabic manuscript by accident in a Toledo market.read · scan
• p. 187–188Fatal chance, as unbelievers hold, brings the thief Gines to the very spot where Quixote and Sancho sleep.read · scan
• p. 323Fortune guides events so Anselmo detects the deception.read · scan
• p. 393–394By chance he looks up and sees a cane with linen wagging from a shuttered window.read · scan
• p. 395The unexpected gift of gold falls at his feet, causing joy and wonder at its source.read · scan
• p. 408–409Fortune offered Zoraida to the narrator and its timing favored the plan.read · scan
• p. 439Quixote invokes the chances that befall in chivalry to explain why an inn holds royalty.read · scan

Sir Walter Raleigh, The Discovery of GuianaVol. 33

• p. 320Martinez's canoe happens to drift to Guianians who take him to Manoa.read · scan

Thomas Dekker, The Shoemaker's HolidayVol. 47

• p. 486–487Mayor remarks that Fortune has brought the hunters, who lost their game, into his hands.read · scan
• p. 511–512Ralph is amazed at the strange accident that the shoe pattern is the one he gave his wife Jane.read · scan
• p. 512Ralph's discovery of the shoe is a lucky coincidence that may lead him to his wife.read · scan

Oliver Goldsmith, She Stoops to ConquerVol. 18

• p. 223–224Miss Neville marvels at the accident of the happy meeting at the supposed inn.read · scan

Jacob and Wilhelm Grimm, Household TalesVol. 17

• p. 206A frog's croak and a gust of wind decide their fate.read · scan
• p. 208–209Her thoughtless slip in the song leaves the third eye awake and betrays her.read · scan

Hans Christian Andersen, TalesVol. 17

• p. 296–297He returns by strange accident to the same room; the boy flings him into the stove for no reason.read · scan

Henry Wadsworth Longfellow, PoemsVol. 42

• p. 1322Gabriel's boat passes hidden nearby; no angel wakes the sleeper, so the lovers narrowly miss each other.read · scan

6.Chance in nature and science

6a.Chance and variation in natural selection

See also: Evolution 4e

Charles Darwin, The Origin of SpeciesVol. 11

• p. 9Aristotle suggests bodily adaptations, such as teeth, arose by accident and were preserved, not made for an end.read · scan
• p. 28–29The doctrine of chances makes reappearance of a rare deviation in a child attributable to inheritance.read · scan
• p. 50Useful variations appear only occasionally, so more individuals raise the chance of their appearance.read · scan
• p. 82Darwin rejects attributing the proportions of plants on an entangled bank to chance; they result from definite laws and competition.read · scan
• p. 94Much destruction of eggs, seeds and adults is fortuitous and accidental, unrelated to adaptation, yet does not invalidate natural selection.read · scan
• p. 114–115Mere chance variation could not alone account for the habitual large differences between species.read · scan
• p. 115–116Denies that domestic races could result from mere chance accumulation of similar variations.read · scan
• p. 122–123Notes that selection depends on infinitely complex relations and unoccupied places, so the process is irregular.read · scan
• p. 133Rare species are exterminated by accidental fluctuations of seasons or enemies.read · scan
• p. 172–173Forms existing in lesser numbers run a greater chance of extermination.read · scan
• p. 173–174Intermediate varieties are liable to accidental extermination owing to small numbers.read · scan
• p. 192Pollen blown by wind through mere chance onto the stigma is the simplest fertilisation plan.read · scan
• p. 224–225Original resemblance to an object is accidental, making a starting point for selection.read · scan
• p. 233Rejects Mivart's framing of the variation as accidental, arguing the case is not put fairly.read · scan
• p. 243–244Accidental resemblance to a common object is the foundation on which selection perfects insect mimicry.read · scan
• p. 247–248Abrupt variations in nature would be lost by accidental destruction and intercrossing.read · scan
• p. 392–393Denies that means of transport are strictly accidental, since currents and winds are regular, while noting small chance of a seed reaching favourable soil.read · scan
• p. 410Fish dispersed by accidental means such as whirlwinds and floods.read · scan

Charles Darwin, The Voyage of the BeagleVol. 29

• p. 151Rare events like great droughts, not ordinary habits, decide a species' survival.read · scan
• p. 291–292Wonders what succession of chances or changes of level spread small animals through the archipelago.read · scan

6b.Improbable concurrences in geology and fossil record

See also: Geology 4b · Evolution 6a

Sir Charles Lyell, Prejudices Which Have Retarded the Progress of GeologyVol. 38

• p. 390Undervaluing time makes rare events seem to coincide, defying the calculation of chances and provoking belief in the preternatural.read · scan

Sir Charles Lyell, Uniformity in the Series of Past Changes in the Animate and Inanimate WorldVol. 38

• p. 409A rare combination of circumstances is needed to preserve a continuous fossil series.read · scan
• p. 409–410Many accidents must concur before a complete fossil sequence is exposed to investigation; the odds are computed against it.read · scan

Charles Darwin, The Origin of SpeciesVol. 11

• p. 37–38Darwin calls the required strange contingencies improbable in the highest degree.read · scan
• p. 177The chance of finding transitional fossils is lower because such forms existed in small numbers.read · scan
• p. 334Balance of sediment supply and subsidence is called a rare contingency.read · scan
• p. 341Preservation of footprints was a rare accident revealing unsuspected bird-like animals.read · scan
• p. 351Each formation is an occasional scene taken almost at hazard from the changing drama of life.read · scan

Charles Darwin, The Voyage of the BeagleVol. 29

• p. 295Darwin wonders whether the coincidence of eruptions was accidental or showed subterranean connection.read · scan
• p. 354–355Coincidence is judged improbable given rarity of rain in northern Chile.read · scan
• p. 465Considers the combination of chances against a stone being entangled, floated and embedded as apparently improbable.read · scan

6c.Chance in discovery and invention

Sir Thomas More, UtopiaVol. 36

• p. 168–169Peter says many useful things among Europeans were found by chance, which no wit could have devised.read · scan

Ambroise Paré, Journeys in Diverse PlacesVol. 38

• p. 11–12His own remedy had been found by chance and matched the surgeon's secret balm.read · scan

William Harrison, A Description of Elizabethan EnglandVol. 35

• p. 295Glass came about by accident when nitrum melted with gravel under a cooking fire.read · scan

Francis Bacon, The New AtlantisVol. 3

• p. 174–175Bacon says new kinds are produced not by chance but by foreknowledge of matter and mixture.read · scan

Voltaire, Letters on the EnglishVol. 34

• p. 99–100Chance gave birth to most inventions and probably the discovery of America.read · scan

Charles Darwin, The Voyage of the BeagleVol. 29

• p. 321A man throwing a stone at his donkey discovered a silver vein.read · scan

6d.Chance and the doctrine of prediction

See also: Prophecy 6b

Plutarch, AntonyVol. 12

• p. 371Caesar meets a man named Fortunate with an ass called Conqueror, taken as an omen of victory.read · scan

Saint Augustine, The Confessions of St. AugustineVol. 7

• p. 46–47The old physician says true forecasts result from chance diffused through things, like a verse opened haphazardly.read · scan
• p. 47–48Fitting verses by haphazard opening of a poet illustrate how divination hits truth by chance, not art.read · scan
• p. 102–103Astrologers' successes are stumbled upon by chance, a sort of lottery.read · scan
• p. 103–105Any true astrological prediction is due to chance, not skill; false ones to failure of chance.read · scan
• p. 105–106Astrologer speaks truly by chance, not art.read · scan

John Webster, The Duchess of MalfiVol. 47

• p. 780–781Antonio dismisses his bleeding nose and blood-drowned initials as mere accident, not omen.read · scan

Sir Thomas Browne, Religio MediciVol. 3

• p. 282Careless enquirers call omens the effects of chance and nature; Browne holds them to be premonitions.read · scan

Blaise Pascal, ThoughtsVol. 48

• p. 233–234Prediction is meant to exclude the claim that fulfilment is chance.read · scan
• p. 236Agreement of prophecies is foretold so it cannot be taken for chance.read · scan

Jean-Jacques Rousseau, Profession of Faith of a Savoyard VicarVol. 34

• p. 286–287Knowing the laws of chance and probability is needed to judge whether a prediction could be fulfilled without miracle.read · scan
• p. 291A fulfilled prediction might have occurred by accident, so accomplishment does not show foreknowledge.read · scan

7.Games of chance, lots and lotteries

7a.Gaming and dice as vice or folly

See also: Diversion 5b

Herodotus, An Account of EgyptVol. 33

• p. 62The king plays dice with Demeter in Hades, winning and losing in turns.read · scan

Plutarch, CaesarVol. 12

• p. 291–292Caesar uses the proverb of gamblers, 'the die is cast,' abandoning himself to what might come.read · scan

Plutarch, AntonyVol. 12

• p. 345–346Antony loses every game of dice, lots and cockfights to Caesar, and the diviner says his fortune is overshadowed.read · scan

Tacitus, GermanyVol. 33

• p. 106Germans gamble desperately at dice, staking their whole substance and persons on one last throw.read · scan

Dante Alighieri, PurgatoryVol. 20

• p. 165–166Simile of the gamester who lost at dice and sadly rehearses his luckless throws while the crowd follows the winner.read · scan

Sir Thomas More, UtopiaVol. 36

• p. 179Dice play and similar foolish, pernicious games are unknown to Utopians.read · scan
• p. 196Dicing is scorned as repetitive madness in which frequent use dulls any pleasure.read · scan

Ben Jonson, The AlchemistVol. 47

• p. 550–551Dapper seeks a familiar spirit to win at horses and cards.read · scan
• p. 552–553Subtle claims the familiar would win all the money in town at games.read · scan
• p. 553Dapper is promised gaming luck through a familiar; Subtle claims a rare star reigned at his birth.read · scan
• p. 603–604Gaming and 'unresistible luck' promised to Dapper at the dice.read · scan
• p. 651–652Dapper is promised luck at gaming, with a familiar fly to teach him all games.read · scan

John Locke, Some Thoughts Concerning EducationVol. 37

• p. 128–129Lettered dice and lottery-like balls used as games of throwing to teach letters.read · scan

Edmund Burke, Reflections on the Revolution in FranceVol. 24

• p. 324Revolutionaries make France a nation of gamesters, with speculation in every transaction and hopes and fears turned to chance.read · scan

Gotthold Ephraim Lessing, Minna von Barnhelm, or The Soldier's FortuneVol. 26

• p. 347–348Riccaut, ruined, must live by gambling and complains of terrible bad luck; Minna offers to share his bank.read · scan
• p. 348–349Riccaut boasts he corrects fortune by cheating at cards; Minna is shocked.read · scan

Johann Wolfgang von Goethe, EgmontVol. 19

• p. 282–283He compares his risk-taking to throwing the bloody die with comrades.read · scan

Richard Brinsley Sheridan, The School for ScandalVol. 18

• p. 150–152Gaming and losses: Charles claims he never loses when merry with champagne.read · scan
• p. 153–155Dice and gaming lure the gentlemen away from business.read · scan

Samuel Taylor Coleridge, The Rime of the Ancient MarinerVol. 41

• p. 687–688Fates of the crew are decided by a throw of dice.read · scan

Alessandro Manzoni, I Promessi Sposi (The Betrothed)Vol. 21

• p. 104–105Count Attilio presses the wager and tries to lay another on the outcome.read · scan

Henry Wadsworth Longfellow, PoemsVol. 42

• p. 1309The old men play draughts in friendly contention, laughing at lucky hits.read · scan

Richard Henry Dana, Jr., Two Years Before the MastVol. 23

• p. 131Bets run high on cock-fight and race outcomes.read · scan

7b.Lotteries and the overvaluing of hazard

See also: Labor 6c · Wealth 9f

Stories from the Thousand and One NightsVol. 16

• p. 279–281Divers on the pearl-fishery dive 'for my luck and lot' and tell him his fortune is good.read · scan

William Penn, Some Fruits of SolitudeVol. 1

• p. 345Desperate game needs able gamester; wisdom does not venture where probability of loss exceeds advantage.read · scan

Benjamin Franklin, His AutobiographyVol. 1

• p. 105–106A lottery is proposed to pay for the battery.read · scan

John Woolman, The Journal of John WoolmanVol. 1

• p. 243–244Lotteries are debated among Friends; Woolman judges their spirit selfish and clouding to understanding.read · scan

Adam Smith, An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of NationsVol. 10

• p. 107Smith likens the liberal professions to a lottery: few succeed, so the lawyer's fees must repay the many failures, though they do not fully.read · scan
• p. 109Men overvalue the chance of gain and undervalue loss, shown by the success of lotteries, which can never be perfectly fair.read · scan
• p. 110–111Insurers' moderate profits and widespread neglect of insurance show men undervalue the risk of loss; rashness and presumptuous contempt of risk.read · scan
• p. 111Army and sea service are lotteries whose hope of great prizes draws recruits.read · scan
• p. 111–112Profit rises with risk but not proportionally; presumptuous hope draws adventurers into hazardous trades like smuggling, causing bankruptcies.read · scan
• p. 115–116The speculative merchant's bold ventures may win or lose a fortune with equal likelihood.read · scan
• p. 173–174Mining compared to a lottery whose prizes do not compensate the blanks, tempting adventurers to throw away fortunes.read · scan
• p. 201Discovery of new mines is uncertain, and no human skill or industry can ensure success.read · scan
• p. 402Mining for gold and silver is a ruinous lottery, where the few prizes bear little proportion to the many blanks, yet men trust in their good fortune.read · scan
• p. 461The risk of fire, sea loss or capture can be roughly estimated, making insurance reducible to method.read · scan

Johann Wolfgang von Goethe, The Tragedy of Faust, Part IVol. 19

• p. 101–104The ape wishes to throw the dice and win the lottery to become rich.read · scan

Charles Darwin, The Voyage of the BeagleVol. 29

• p. 348–349Silver-mining as gambling or a lottery; the miner's trick over the bet on the rolling stone.read · scan

7c.Lots as a means of decision

Sophocles, AntigoneVol. 8

• p. 267The guard rejoices in an unhoped-for outcome; lots decided who must report.read · scan

Virgil, The AeneidVol. 13

• p. 178The archers take their turns by lot drawn from a helmet.read · scan

Luke, The Acts of the ApostlesVol. 44

• p. 424–425The successor Matthias is chosen by casting lots after prayer, leaving the outcome to God.read · scan

Tacitus, GermanyVol. 33

• p. 98Lots are thrown at random on a cloth and read for outcomes.read · scan

Geoffrey Chaucer, The Prologue to the Canterbury Tales; The Nun's Priest's TaleVol. 40

• p. 31The host's lot-drawing for who tells first is left to fortune, chance or fate; the cut falls to the Knight.read · scan

Edward Haies, Sir Humphrey Gilbert's Voyage to NewfoundlandVol. 33

• p. 290Headly proposes casting lots to decide who is thrown overboard to lighten the boat.read · scan

Ben Jonson, The AlchemistVol. 47

• p. 623–624They settle who wins the widow by lot, 'obey your chance'.read · scan

Thomas Hobbes, Of Man, Being the First Part of LeviathanVol. 34

• p. 409–410Indivisible things not held in common are determined by lot, arbitrary or natural (primogeniture, first seizure).read · scan

Jacob and Wilhelm Grimm, Household TalesVol. 17

• p. 156–157Three feathers blown into the air determine the sons' paths, and the Simpleton's falls close by.read · scan

7d.Pascal's wager and the doctrine of chance

See also: Reasoning 7c

Blaise Pascal, ThoughtsVol. 48

• p. 84Wager image: heads or tails played at infinite distance; you must wager.read · scan
• p. 84–85Weighs gain and loss in wagering that God is; equal risk with infinite gain against nothing lost.read · scan
• p. 85Probability argument: with infinite happy life to gain against finite stake, wagering is rational even at long odds.read · scan
• p. 85Pascal argues the wager by proportioning stake to chances of gain and loss, as every gambler does.read · scan
• p. 85–86With equal risks of gain and loss and an infinite prize, the wager is demonstrably right.read · scan
• p. 87We rightly act on uncertainty, as with voyages and battles, according to the doctrine of chance.read · scan
• p. 87–88Augustine saw that we work for uncertainty but lacked the doctrine of chance that justifies it.read · scan
• p. 88The doctrine of chance says one should search for truth; life is uncertain even for an hour.read · scan
• p. 88–89Weighs the risks of belief versus unbelief regarding hell and damnation.read · scan

Edmund Burke, Reflections on the Revolution in FranceVol. 24

• p. 298–299They abandon the public interest to chance by trusting untested theories.read · scan

See also: Fate, War and Peace, Evolution, Diversion, Courage, Honor